{"schema_version":"1.0","type":"article","title":"Moderna癌症疫苗贏了三期，BioNTech卻輸","url":"https://drugnews.com.tw/articles/2026-10-25-moderna-merck-intismeran-biontech-opposite.html","markdown_url":"https://drugnews.com.tw/articles/2026-10-25-moderna-merck-intismeran-biontech-opposite.md","lang":"zh-Hant","date":"2026-10-25","publish_at":"2026-10-25T08:00:00+08:00","updated_at":"2026-10-25","category":"商業分析系列","topic":"臨床與 CMC","tags":["Moderna","Merck 默沙東","BioNTech","癌症疫苗","黑色素瘤"],"summary":"Moderna 與 Merck 的個人化 mRNA 癌症疫苗三期把黑色素瘤復發或死亡風險降 42%（HR 0.58），股價卻跌 25%；BioNTech 同類疫苗 8 月在大腸癌二期終止。差在癌別、併用 Keytruda 與時間。附我們 10/19 預估的對帳。","key_points":["Moderna 與 Merck 的個人化 mRNA 癌症疫苗 intismeran autogene 加 Keytruda，在三期 INTerpath-001（1,137 人）把術後高風險黑色素瘤的復發或死亡風險降低 42%（RFS HR 0.58，95% CI 0.45–0.75），兩年無復發 82.2% 對 70.0%（2026-10-23 ESMO LBA1 資料）。","INTerpath-001 前 6 個月兩組無差別（HR 0.99），6 個月後 HR 0.42；BioNTech 同類疫苗 autogene cevumeran 單用於 ctDNA 陽性術後大腸癌的二期試驗於 2026-08-28 終止。","藥時事 2026-10-19 預估三期 HR 落在 0.60–0.75，實際 0.58，預估過於保守。"],"facts":[],"sections":["01｜數字：每 100 個病人，多 12 個人兩年內沒復發也沒死亡","02｜試驗贏了，股價為什麼跌 25%？","03｜同一招，BioNTech 為什麼輸？","04｜對帳：我們 10 月 19 日的預估錯了","05｜接下來看三件事","參考資料"],"references":[{"title":"Personalized mRNA Vaccine Intismeran Plus Pembro Cuts Melanoma Recurrence","source":"Targeted Oncology","date":"2026-10-23","url":"https://www.targetedonc.com/view/personalized-mrna-vaccine-intismeran-autogene-pembrolizumab-cuts-melanoma-recurrence"},{"title":"Moderna Tumbles 25% After Apparent Early Leak of Melanoma Vaccine Data","source":"24/7 Wall St.","date":"2026-10-22","url":"https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/22/moderna-tumbles-25-after-apparent-early-leak-of-melanoma-vaccine-data-biontech-dips-pfizer-edges-higher/"},{"title":"#ESMO26: Data leak for Merck and Moderna's therapeutic cancer vaccine","source":"Endpoints News","date":"2026-10-22","url":"https://endpoints.news/data-leaks-for-merck-and-modernas-therapeutic-cancer-vaccine/"},{"title":"Autogene cevumeran trial terminated in resected colorectal cancer","source":"CancerNetwork","date":"2026-08-31","url":"https://www.cancernetwork.com/view/autogene-cevumeran-trial-terminated-in-resected-colorectal-cancer"},{"title":"Moderna, Merck cancer vaccine data spark stock surge","source":"BioPharma Dive","date":"2026-08-19","url":"https://www.biopharmadive.com/news/moderna-merck-intismeran-melanoma-vaccine-stock-reaction/828332/"},{"title":"Moderna, Citi downgrade to sell","source":"Forbes Italia","date":"2026-09-30","url":"https://forbes.it/2026/09/30/moderna-citi-sell-vaccino-anti-cancro/"},{"title":"INTerpath-001","source":"ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05933577","date":"","url":"https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05933577"}],"images":[{"alt":"前 6 個月沒差別，6 個月後才拉開","url":"https://drugnews.com.tw/assets/articles/moderna-merck-intismeran-biontech-opposite/figure-01.png"},{"alt":"同一種疫苗，兩種設計，兩種結果","url":"https://drugnews.com.tw/assets/articles/moderna-merck-intismeran-biontech-opposite/figure-02.png"},{"alt":"判斷帳本：我們的預估區間與實際結果","url":"https://drugnews.com.tw/assets/articles/moderna-merck-intismeran-biontech-opposite/figure-03.png"}],"cover_image":"https://drugnews.com.tw/assets/articles/moderna-merck-intismeran-biontech-opposite/cover.png","publisher":{"name":"Drugnews｜藥時事","url":"https://drugnews.com.tw/","profile":"https://drugnews.com.tw/brand-profile.json"},"citation":"Drugnews｜藥時事（2026-10-25）。Moderna癌症疫苗贏了三期，BioNTech卻輸。https://drugnews.com.tw/articles/2026-10-25-moderna-merck-intismeran-biontech-opposite.html","disclaimer":"本文僅供產業研究與知識分享，不構成投資、醫療、募資或個股建議。","translations":{},"relationship":"independent_editorial","disclosure_url":"https://drugnews.com.tw/policy/"}